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Auteur: Bas Heijink

Technisch analist Bas Heijink schrijft iedere dag een update over de AEX. Senior Technisch Analist Bas Heijink houdt zich binnen de ING Investment Office van ING Bank bezig met Technische Analyse. Heijink let vooral op de kansen die hij ziet in de markt om op korte termijn een goed absoluut rendement te behalen. H...

Meer over Bas Heijink

Recente artikelen van Bas Heijink

  1. jun '17 TA Arcelor Mittal: Buy the dip 12
  2. jun '17 TA: Bedankt! 411
  3. jun '17 TA: Van lang naar kort 425

Reacties

581 Posts
Pagina: 1 2 3 4 5 6 ... 30 »» | Laatste | Omlaag ↓
  1. [verwijderd] 3 februari 2014 08:59
    Ik volg deze trader nu een paar weekjes, hij zit verbazingwekkend vaak goed en geeft concrete trades die winstgevend zijn, al 750% rendement sinds medio december. Hij is te volgen via Facebook (zoeken op Trip Trading). Hieronder zijn nieuwsbrief (gratis). Kortom: hij verwacht een stijging op de SP500 tot 1810-1820 en dan verder down. Ik hoor graag hoe jullie hier over denken.

    Trip Trading Weekly Newsletter

    Sunday 2nd Feb, 2014

    Total Return since inception (Dec 15, 2013 - 31 Jan, 2014): 745,01%.

    - My strategy
    I use CFD's with a 200x leverage, and only trade the S&P500.
    I have set a max investment of 10% of my total portfolio in one trade.
    I make my decisions based on Cycles, Elliot wave and Divergences in the Technical Indicators. All the other info is for fun.

    Current positions: 5% is invested in shorts SP500, 95% cash. If the SP500 drops, I make money. If it goes up, I will probably buy more shorts. Stoploss @ 1751 on the cash index.
    I don't feel comfortable enough to go long right now, especially not overnight.

    - Expected Return and Max Loss
    I expect the SP500 to drop to 1550. From the high, this represents a 300 points drop, which is equivalent to -17%. Let's assume for a change that we didn't time the market spot on @ 1850 and that we entered the trade at the current level of 1780.

    A $100 investment could be worth:
    100 x 200 leverage x 12.92% return = $2.684.

    Max Loss: b/c of our stoploss at 1851, our max drawdawn is limited to:
    $ 900 with a $100 investment.

    - Cycle Analysis
    Next Week: Wednesday the 5th of February is a 90 cycle day. Will this mark a lower high @ 1810-1820?
    Start of this 90 day cycle was Nov 7, 2013 and marked a low @ 1746.

    Last Week: Tuesday the 28th of Jan marked a 60 and 90 day cycle, Wednesday the 29th of Jan marked a 180 day cycle. With hindsight, it seems it was a low @ 1770 and time to go long.

    - Support & Resistance
    For now, resistance seems 1810-1820, and 1850.
    Support is to be expected @ 1770.

    - Pattern
    Inverted SHS: 1772, 1770, 1772. Short term target 1810-1820.
    SHS: 1810-1850-1810?

    - Elliot Wave
    ShortTerm: I believe we started Wave A down, of Wave 4 ABC down.
    The top of Wave 3 up was marked @1850.
    Wave A of 4 down should consist of 5 subwaves. We just finished A1 down, so A2up could have started at 1770, last Wednesday the 29th of January, a 180 cycle day, and could reach 1820, maybe Wednesday the 3rd of Feb. Then we can expect A3 down, target 1580 (-140p = -8%).

    Longer Term: this wave A down could bring us below 1550, if wave A3 is 1.68 of wave A1. After wave 4ABC down, we should expect another higher high with help of Wave 5 up in the year 2015.

    - Technical Indicators
    I use MACD, RSI, and Ultimate Oscillator. There seems to be a Positive Reversal on the SP500. Indicates 1840-1850 as target price.
    Longer Term: extreme Bearish Divergence, signals down.

    - Putcall Ratio
    Last couple of days we saw a rise from 0.9 to 1.2 indicating that investors are buying protection and were expecting a decline in the SP500. And so it happened. Last Friday, more calls than puts were traded, indicating an expected rise in the SP500 for this week.

    - Bradley
    Next date: 22nd of March.

    - Astronomy
    New Moon: 30th of Jan, 2014 & 1st of March, 2014.
    Full Moon: 15th of Feb, 2014.

    - Fundamental Analysis
    Nothing makes sense, so why bother mentioning that markets are extremely overvalued?

581 Posts
Pagina: 1 2 3 4 5 6 ... 30 »» | Laatste |Omhoog ↑

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