Landbouwproducten als graan, maïs, koffie en suiker hebben een héle goede rit achter de rug. Leuk als je er al in zit, maar voor wie er nu pas aan gaat denken is één vraag relevant. Zet deze stijging voort of is de beste rally sinds 2010 nu ten einde? Hier de rally (graan-ETF) in beeld:
Enkele investeringsbanken waaronder Goldman Sachs zien het einde van de bullrally voor deze commodity’s. Of liggen er toch kansen? Van Fool.com:
For a decade and half, China was the factory of the world. With its large rural population, the country had an almost unlimited supply of labor that kept wages low. Factories combined that cheap labor and foreign direct investment to make low-cost products that China exported all around the world.
With that export income, China developed its infrastructure and industrialized. Because labor and capital remained cheap, China's appetite for commodities grew to an unprecedented scale and led to one of the great commodity bull markets in history.
In recent years, however, the market dynamics have changed. Chinese labor wages have increased greatly. Chinese growth has slowed dramatically from a bursting credit bubble. The three proxies for Chinese economy -- rail cargo volume, electricity consumption, and bank lending -- are all weak.
Chinese demand for commodities, the underlying reason for the rise in prices, is no longer as strong as before, and the good times of double-digit annual price increases are over. The bull phase of the commodity super-cycle certainly looks over.
Het China-probleemverhaal kan de prijzen dus sterk drukken. Van álle landbouwcommodity's? Bij koffie lijken er toch weer andere mechanismen aan het werk, is te lezen op Bloomberg.
Hedgefunds boosted their net-bullish holding on arabica coffee by 9 percent to 43,416 contracts, the highest since March 2008. Prices surged 62 percent this quarter, the biggest rally since the three months ended March 1997. This year’s drought in Brazil, the world’s biggest grower and exporter, may tilt the global market into a supply deficit, ending four years of surpluses, according to Keith Flury, an agricultural strategist at BNP Paribas SA.
“When you have big shocks to inventory, the amount of time that it takes to replenish them can be lengthy,” said Nelson Louie, global head of commodities at Credit Suisse Asset Management, which manages $11.7 billion. “While the expectation is there will be a supply response, the question is, over what timeframe?”
En hoe vergaat het met de bedrijven die in landbouwcommodity's actief zijn (of ze in grote hoeveelheden gebruiken)? De grafiekjes lopen (tot nu toe) over het algemeen ook lekker op, zie hieronder. En deze bedrijven betalen in tegenstelling tot de grondstof zelf nog dividend ook.
Enkele voorbeeld:
