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Je hebt deze reactie van mij hoop ik niet gemist Amor? Ben wel benieuwd wat er niet klopt aan mijn antwoord.
Hi JJO, Ik had inderdaad je bericht van vanmorgen gemist, en 2 minuten geleden pas gelezen. Ik ga er niet op in, want dit is een discussie die niemand kan winnen. Je zult echter moeten toegeven, dat je niet objectief de zaak ("Het Zaakje") bekijkt, maar erg emotioneel. B.V. verklaar je dat je spaarcentjes straks minder waard worden, en dat dat de schuld van Amerika/Dollar/Amerikanen/WallStreet/whatever is. Kan je je spaarcentjes niet investeren in iets dat met Amerika niets te maken heeft, of liever nog, iets dat het beter zal doen wanneer "Het Zaakje" in Amerika over de afgrond van Simi verdwijnt? Je schijnt overstuur te zijn dat GM het lef heeft 'n bank te zijn? Waarom ben je niet overstuur dat ABN-Amro 'n bank is? Is geld verdienen met manufacturing op de een of andere manier beter dan geld verdienen met services, in dit geval banking? Ik kan dit niet volgen, tenzij je 'n fabrieksarbeider zou zijn die zijn baan in de autofabriek verloor. Irrationeel! Groeten en succes met je spaarcentjes. >-->
Today's WSJ reports: 'Standard & Poor's dropped its credit rating of Pittsburgh's municipal debt by five notches to junk status...The decision by S&P, announced Wednesday, affects about $879 million of Pittsburgh debt outstanding...
Ik ga er niet op in, zeg je Amor en toch doe je het! Moeilijk he. vr.gr. duro
Hi jjo, Kan je misschien ook uitleggen waarom dit belangrijk zou zijn? Wat betekent dit? Wat betekent "Junk status"? Hoe belangrijk is dit? Wat zijn de gevolgen, als er al zijn, en voor wie? Slecht nieuws hier publiceren kan iedereen, vooral het woord "junk" geeft je al kippenvel, zonder verdere uitleg, zou 'n leek concluderen, dat pittsburgh al over de bekende afgrond aan het glijden is. Aansluitende op mijn vorige bericht, wat heeft de kwaliteit van Pittsburgh's municipal debt te maken met het welzijn van de beleggers op de koffiekamer, zonder 'n uitleg van 'n bekwaam accountant, afgezien natuurlijk van de waarde van 'n alarmerende headline voor de (not)-fans van de US-economie? Groeten en mag je nog veel slecht nieuws vinden, >-->
En let vooral op de laatste 2 alinea's Amor. Niet onbelangrijk voor investeerders/beleggers. vr.gr. duro Pittsburgh bond rating drops to junk status Wednesday, October 15, 2003 By Timothy McNulty, Post-Gazette Staff Writer A New York City agency dropped Pittsburgh's credit rating to junk bond status today, citing the city's failure to get new taxing authority from the state and its discussion of municipal bankruptcy. Standard & Poor's dropped the city's ranking from A- to BB, a 5-notch drop. The new ranking is not investment-grade, placing it at so called "junk-bond" status. That agency and others placed the city's credit rating on watch this summer, saying they would drop the ratings if the city's fiscal forecast did not improve. Today that threat was realized. A low credit rating will increase the city's borrowing costs. Knowing that, the Murphy administration had already announced it would not borrow some $70 million to fund capital projects in 2004, as the city usually does every two years. S&P said it dropped the rating due to three main factors: the unresolved status of state help for the city budget; an audit released in August questioning the city's ability to operate as a "going concern"; and statements by city officials that they are studying bankruptcy as one of several budget options. The agency could increase the city's rating, but if the city's fiscal status stays on its current track -- with a $40 million budget shortfall this year that may double in 2004 -- it could cut the rating even further, especially if the city considers filing for bankruptcy, possibly shielding it from creditors. "Should the city identify and implement budget-balancing options under its control or successfully negotiate expanded revenue and tax authority, which requires state legislative action, the rating could be restored to investment grade," Standard & Poor's credit analyst Karl Jacob said in a prepared statement. "However, if the city continues to consider bankruptcy as an option to its current fiscal situation, a non-investment grade rating would be maintained, and if the city actually availed itself of protection under the bankruptcy code, the rating would be lowered further." State legislation being unveiled today by House Republicans would bar the city from filing for bankruptcy unless approved by the governor; bar the city from becoming a state-sanctioned, financially distressed municipality, allowing it to charge commuter taxes; and tap a fiscal oversight board to propose annual budgets to the mayor and city council. Draft versions of the legislation have included no new taxing authority for the city. S&P's BB rating is the best of its junk-bond-status ratings, but as with all the agency's low ratings, it is a warning to investors that the city may not be able to repay debt. Investors can still buy junk bonds, but banks cannot. According to S&P's own definitions, "Debt rated BB has less near-term vulnerability to default than other speculative issues. However, it faces major ongoing uncertainties or exposure to adverse business, financial, or economic conditions which could lead to inadequate capacity to meet timely interest and principal payments." -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- More details in tomorrow's Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
Ik geef onmiddelijk toe dat ik nogal emotioneel wordt, nu al 4 jaar lang die OF domme OF leugenachtig praat hoor van analisten, (overheids) macro-economen en greenspannetjes, terwijl de OBJECTIEVE cijfers voor een leek als ik ben, met een paar internetklikken te vinden zijn bij bijv. www.dailyreckoning.com en www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/upd... Ben erg nieuwsgierig welke cijfers die daar genoemd worden jij kunt weerleggen. Mooie retorische truc overigens die je toepast: als je een discussie niet kunt winnen, zeggen dat je er niet op in gaat, "want dit is een discussie die niemand kan winnen." En daarna natuurlijk toch nog je zegje doen. Voor het overige gun ik je graag het laatste woord. (Hoe vind je die! Ik leer het vlug, vind je niet?)
Je bent vast slim genoeg om eens wat antwoorden te bedenken op de vragen die je stelt.
Zomaar wat cijfers bij elkaar gesprokkeld de laatste weken. Met Excuses voor het ongeredigeerde karakter. Ik hoop dat het er niemand van zal weerhouden deze cijfers te weerleggen. --> Groth resuming? Real GDP rising at a 7.2% rate in the 3rd quarter. Maar: 1. But nearly half the 3rd quarter's magnificent gain can be traced to child tax credits. (The Treasury sent out $13.7 billion worth of child tax credits in the month of July, which produced an "orgy of spending.") Het Commerce Department zelf schrijft:"Most of that growth stemmed from a sharp rise in consumer spending, driven largely by a continuing boom in mortgage refinancing and checks that were mailed out as part of the recent tax cut." 2. Another big chunk of the increase in GDP could be traced to auto sales - which raced along, increasing at a 38.9% annual rate. Met dank aan uitgestelde betalingen (= toenemende schulden). 3. Er is meer nodig dan een enkel kwartaal flinke groei: Growth rates of postwar recoveries in the United States averaged 5.4% over the first two years after recession - and that needed very little monetary and fiscal stimulus, as against less than 3% growth currently. Weinig reden tot jubelen dus. 4. Van de groei in de vorige kwartalen was zo'n 40% te danken aan government spending. (In the first quarter of 2003 for 40.7% and in the second quarter for 38.2%). Dat lijkt me weinig te maken te hebben met een gezonde autonome economische. 5. Al eerder in de afgelopen 3 jaar is hebben we een kwartaal met een groeicijfer van 6,5% bejubeld horen worden door de beren. Daarna viel de groei weer terug. --> Consumer debts Deze stegen meer dan GDP om maar eens wat te noemen: Consumer credit in the U.S. rose at a 9.7 percent annual pace, in September. That's the biggest jump in consumer credit since January. (Federal Reserve raporteerde dat vrijdag) De schulden groeien sneller dan de economie: Household debt is rising at an 8.8 percent annual rate, home mortgage debt at 14.2 percent. (even as mortgage delinquency rates also hit new records.) Total debt in the United States doubled from 1998 to 2002, from $16 trillion to $32 trillion, and may double again in the next five years (afgaande op de plannen van de Federal government voor de komende jaren) Elke inwonder van de V.S. heeft een gemiddelde schuld van $210.000: Private debt is $26 trillion, or about $90,000 for every person. And below that number is an even bigger one. Former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill convened a group of economists to compute the actual debts and liabilities -- beyond expected revenues -- of the U.S. government. The astounding figure they came up with was $44 trillion....or another $130,000 per person. This gives him a total debt figure of about $210,000, growing by at least 5% per year.... For every $1 of tax cuts, federal borrowing to finance the tax cuts, the war on terror and routine government operations will total $3.60 over six years, according to the Congressional Budget Office. "The government is basically borrowing $1,000 in your name and then handing you $250 of it," said Robert McIntyre, director of Citizens for Tax Justice. Hoe wordt de schuld gefinancierd: door buitenlandse leningen: According to the Treasury department, a total of $41.2 billion in new money was raised in the month of August. Who were the buyers? A full 81% of them, according to the Treasury department, were foreigners. Foreign holdings of U.S. dollar securities have bubbled up from less than 10% of long-term public debt in 1997 to more than 50% in August of 2003. De V.S. is voor haar federal budget en de waarde van de dollar afhankelijk geworden van met name China en Japan. --> consumer spending - which now accounts for 90% (as against a long-term ratio of about 67%) of all U.S. economic activity - only grows as high as the tide of the greatest credit flood in history can lift it. --> Personal incomes. Real compensation per hour is rising at barely a 1% annual rate. De consumptie groeit 4x zo snel als de inkomens. The past quarter wages are up more than 2% after being adjusted for inflation. But here's the problem...or problems..."hours worked" are actually falling, and incomes "excluding tax cuts and home refinancings" are in high reverse. If you measure income year-over-year and include "tax cuts and refinancings," personal income appears to have risen as high as 8% this year; take them out and they've fallen by as much as 2%. --> Insiderselling Mensen verkopen 34x zoveel aandelen van het bedrijf waarvoor ze werken, dan dat ze kopen. (Insider selling is 34 x zo groot als insider buying) --> Savings Men spaart nauwelijks in de V.S. America's savings rate has fallen to one half of one percent of GDP. In Asia, people save 20% to 40% of their incomes and lend to Americans. In North America, people save barely anything. Instead, they borrow from the Asians in order to be able to buy more imported products and boost employment in foreign countries. --> Sentiment Het sentiment is nog nooit zo optimistisch geweest onder financieel analisten. Bijv. de volgende drie records zijn gebroken: Record 1. The four most widely followed gauges of investor sentiment – Bullish Consensus, AAII, Investor's Intelligence and Marketvane -- all four of the gauges showed that greater than 57% of those surveyed are bullish. Never before have all for sentiment indicators produced bullish readings above 57% at the same time. Record 2. Last week was the 25th straight Investors Intelligence report, of greater than 50% bulls. Never in the 40-year history of the survey has there ever been a string of 25 weeks of 50%-plus bulls. Record 3: The recent Barron's Big Money poll reflected five times as many bulls as bears among their professional managers surveyed. The 64.6% bulls number broke the old record. Ook aardig: www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/sentiment... En verder: VIX index had slipped to a 7-year low and the VNX index, which tracks Nasdaq option pricing, had tumbled to an 8-year low. --> Waarderingen Amazon.com now trades near 95 times suspicious earnings. Yahoo's P/E is 112. Anything is possible, but it is extremely rare for the leading shares in a stock market bubble to bounce back to their previous highs. --> Twijfels over wat men in de V.S. de afgelopen 30 nu eigenlijk is opgeschoten : average hours worked rose nearly 12% between 1973 and 2000. Real incomes barely rose at all. For men, they actually fell a little.
Wat zou het uitmaken (ik geloof het niet) voor de financiele markten als mensen de afgelope 30 jaar eigenlijk niet rijker zijn geworden. Het is alleen maar 'niet leuk' voor de mensen die daar wonen. Vg, Dave
Hi Jjo, Is dat alles wat je na weken lang zoeken hebt kunnen vinden" Kingie, Nightbreed, ADP en anderen vinden meer slecht nieuws over de USA in 5 minuten. >-->
Beste Amor, Zou het geen slechts nieuws willen noemen, wij noemen het de waarheid ;) met altijd vriendelijke groet, Nightbreed ps leuk stukje over goud, succes ermee.
Fantastische berichten vind je gelukkig ook en dat nog wel binnen de vijf minuten. Heb je de grafiek van de Semiconductor index gezien..? En dan gewoon dit berichtje hieronder. Een van de vele gelukkig! Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Homebuilders such as Centex Corp. and Pulte Homes Inc. have recorded some of the year's biggest gains in the U.S. stock market. The potential for interest rates to rise as early as next year's first quarter may end the surge. The Standard & Poor's 500 Homebuilding Index, consisting of the two companies and KB Home, has risen more than four times as much as the S&P 500 in 2003. The lowest interest rates in almost five decades have fueled record home sales. Speculation mounted last week that the Federal Reserve may raise its benchmark rate, especially after a government report showed that the economy added about twice as many jobs as economists expected in October.
Nee hoor Amor, ik kan je geruststellen; ik houd dat niet zo bij. Dit was het resultaat van een avondje quick scan.
Maar dat klopt ook precies ffff! Zoals ik schreef: het sentiment is nog nooit zo optimistisch geweest onder financieel analisten. En je weet vast nog wel hoe goed die als contra-indicator dienen. Bijv. de volgende drie records zijn gebroken: Record 1. The four most widely followed gauges of investor sentiment – Bullish Consensus, AAII, Investor's Intelligence and Marketvane -- all four of the gauges showed that greater than 57% of those surveyed are bullish. Never before have all for sentiment indicators produced bullish readings above 57% at the same time. Record 2. Last week was the 25th straight Investors Intelligence report, of greater than 50% bulls. Never in the 40-year history of the survey has there ever been a string of 25 weeks of 50%-plus bulls. Record 3: The recent Barron's Big Money poll reflected five times as many bulls as bears among their professional managers surveyed. The 64.6% bulls number broke the old record. Ook aardig: www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/sentiment... En verder: VIX index had slipped to a 7-year low and the VNX index, which tracks Nasdaq option pricing, had tumbled to an 8-year low.
Top Stories Analysts Hike Forecasts of 2004 U.S. Growth Mon 12:03am ET - Reuters Scrambling to keep up with surprisingly strong economic news, private forecasters have boosted projections of U.S. economic growth. bron: finance.yahoo.com/?u Hi Jjo en anderen, Ik ben het er wel mee eens, dat als iedereen zo optimistisch is en de Bullish indicator op 'n hoogtepunt staat, dat dat 'n slecht teken is voor de koersen. Mijn andere bericht was natuurlijk 'n beetje sarcastisch bedoeld. Ik wilde even mijn frustratie luchten, aangezien er zovelen hier als maar slecht nieuws weten te publiceren met dikke aanbevelingen erbij, en als er goede berichten geplaatst worden, dan is het meestal met de nodige waarschuwingen, dat je er niets van moet geloven, want dat het allemaal slechts verzinsels en leugens zijn van de fed en het PPT. Niemand weet wat de toekomst brengt, maar we proberen de beste keuze te maken. Ik kijk naar individuele stocks en de goud/zilver sector, niet naar de Dow, Nasdaq, Dax, Aex, of S&P. Ik roteer ik (bijna) elke dag (in & out every 5 minutes*** :-) Groeten, >--> p.s. ***De oude leuze van Eastern Airlines.
'We are collapsing': Virus pummels medics in Spain and Italy apnews.com/7ec91dc45d8d7c2ea86b0a9744...
New York Governor Cuomo says an economic stimulus package of $3.8 billion is not enough for the state. Follow more updates here: reut.rs/3bnPwUc
Spike in new coronavirus infections in Tokyo adds urgency to government preparations for possible state of emergency declaration. Japan steps up coronavirus campaign as Tokyo cases rise again - Nikkei Asian Review asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus...
Research: Rating Action: Moody's takes actions on 15 Italian banks - Moody's www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-takes-...
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