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voda 3 januari 2016 12:44
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Welcoming 2016 – Leaving Behind Nightmarish 2015

Overview

While almost everyone associated with steel, metals and mining sectors globally would like to erase the dramatic downturn witnessed in 2015 and start 2016 on a positive note, the situation is likely to get worse in 2016 as glut on supply side won't go away so easily and the prospects of a substantial recovery in demand is quite unlikely. Thus it would be prudent to accept the ground realities and brace for further jolts in coming times by taking extraordinary measures to remain competitive rather than taking short term measures. Let’s look at how various commodities have behaved in general during 2015 and what is the consensus among experts about the likely trends in 2016.

Commodity Specification Unit 1-Jan-15 30-Dec-15 YoY

Crude Oil Brent USD/BBL 72.5 36.9 -49%

Natural Gas Henry Hub USD/mmBTU 3.95 2.25 -43%

Iron Ore Fines 62% USD/WMT CFR China 70 41 -41%

Coking Coal Prime Hard USD/T FOB Australia 114 77 -33%

Steam Coal NEX USD/T FOB Australia 63 52 -17%

Met Coke >62 CSR USD/T FOB China 179 123 -31%

Scrap HMS 80:20 USA USD/T CFR Turkey 324 185 -43%

Rebar 10-32, Fe500 USD/T FOB China 400 245 -39%

HRC 4-10, SS400 USD/T FOB China 455 255 -44%

Copper LME cash UST/T 6305 4715 -25%

Aluminium LME cash UST/T 1821 1507 -17%

Zinc LME cash UST/T 2183 1592 -27%

Nickel LME cash UST/T 14875 8610 -42%

Tin LME cash UST/T 19375 14655 -24%

Gold 995 Fineness USD/OZ 1208 1063 -12%

BDI 741 478 -35%

Oil

Oil prices remained on the back foot in 2015 with no end in sight for the global glut that has built up since OPEC started an oil price-war with the US shale industry in early 2014. Both sides are determined to keep oil pumping off the ground despite growing discontent. It is reported that while the most efficient US drilling points could sustain production at prices as low as USD 30, Iran also recently remarked that production is still possible at USD 30 price. Also, Saudi Arabia recently reaffirmed that it won't cut back its output to support prices. The IEA said global demand growth is forecast to slow to 1.2 million barrels a day in 2016 after surging to 1.8 million barrels a day this year as support from sharply falling oil prices begins to fade. Growth will evaporate completely early next year, with non-OPEC supply expected to fall by about 600,000 barrels per day in 2016, largely due to a decline in USA shale production. Banks such as Goldman Sachs have said oil prices could fall to as low as USD 20 per barrel as the world might run out of capacity to store unwanted oil.

Natural Gas

EIA's forecast of U.S. total natural gas consumption averages 76.5 billion cubic feet/day (Bcf/d) in 2015 and 76.7 Bcf/d in 2016, compared with 73.1 Bcf/d in 2014. Strong inventory builds, continuing production growth, and expectations for warmer-than-normal winter temperatures have all contributed to low natural gas prices. Monthly average Henry Hub spot prices are forecast to remain less than USD 3/MMBtu through August 2016. EIA has projected Henry Hub natural gas price averaging USD 2.67/MMBtu in 2015 and USD 2.88/MMBtu in 2016.

Iron Ore

Both weak crude prices and a strong US currency have been two of the factors behind the falls in iron ore prices, though rising supply from the majors and concerns around Chinese demand continue to put downward pressure. Falling Chinese demand has forced few steel mills to shut operations this year as Beijing is allowing the closures in a bid to attack over capacity in steel making. However, demand for iron ore is just getting weaker and stockpiles are building at Chinese ports. Meanwhile, China is sidelining more steel production as it becomes evident they can't go down the road of just exporting to compensate for a weak domestic market. Tumbling iron ore prices have already forced many smaller miners to close, but forecasts of further deterioration could test the staying power of even the lowest cost, mega miners still turning a profit. All this has led to some market-watchers tipping a fall into the USD 20s for the commodity, a price at which only BHP and Rio could turn a profit. Axiom Capital analyst Mr Gordon Johnson told "Prices will go deep into the low USD 30s next year and go into the USD 20s in 2017. It could happen sooner than our forecast of 2017, that wouldn't shock us." Breakeven costs (Source - Citi) - Rio Tinto USD 29.2; BHP Billiton USD 29.4; Vale USD 33.4; FMG USD 37.0 a tonne

Coking Coal

The elusive bottoming out of coking coal prices never happened due to the slowdown in the steel industry and the contracting of Chinese demand. Australian coal producers who had expanded operations and developed new mines to cater to Chinese demand which they thought was yet to peak, discovered to their horror that they had miscalculated. With the surplus quantities available with them, they resorted to dropping prices. The demand-supply imbalance is still there and prices are not expected to register significant increases. The Australian coal industry enjoys the blatant patronage of their government and the depleting Forex rate vis-a-vis the USD has been the lifesaver. With US interest rates going up and the US dollar strengthening further, the Australian Dollar is expected to go below the US 70 cents level which will provide further cushion to the Aussie coal industry. More mine closures will be seen in countries other than Australia. However, some of the Australian coal companies have also started to feel the heat.

Steam Coal

2015 proved to be a highly volatile year with thermal coal taking another beating. Across the globe we witnessed a concerted drive against coal as an energy source which culminated at Paris. President Barak Obama took some tough decisions which have seen a spate of bankruptcies in the coal sector in US. Cheaper gas and oil rates, internal freight rates helped in making US coal mines uneconomical and uncompetitive. Similar action was seen in Europe. While renewable energy will make huge inroads in developed countries, countries such as India and China will continue to be major users of coal in the energy sector. South African coal prices which registered substantial increases over the last month, have dropped again, but South Africa continue to be the preferred source for the Gulf, Europe and India. Australian steam coal continues to enjoy its traditional customer base in Japan, Korea and Taiwan. With the FTA between Australia and China having kicked in Australia will enjoy an advantage, but the quantities will no longer be there and the Australians will have to look for other markets as well as they will be helped by a favorable FOREX rate against the US dollar. This obviously means that prices will be in a lower band due to surplus availability. However, it remains to be seen to whether the Indonesian mines will carry out the production cuts they have been threatening. If that is significant, there could be some firming up of price.

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voda 3 januari 2016 12:45
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Deel 2:

Steel Scrap

Steel scrap prices have tumbled in 2015 with import levels going below up to USD 200 CFR mark for HMS 80:20 at world's biggest buying nation Turkey as EAF based steel mills are struggling to find costing parity with billet prices considering a delta of about USD 110-120 between them making steel mills to use billets shutting their steel making facilities. With Chinese billet prices of about USD 245 CFR Turkey, the viability of buying scrap, for other than domestic consumption of finished steel in Turkey, will happen if the prices drop to about USD 130-140. Thus Turkish EAF based steel mills are still struggling to find equilibrium with BF route and expect scrap prices to go down further although many believe that such low levels would make scrap collection non lucrative reducing availability significantly keeping prices firm

Rebar

Considered to be benchmark product for long category of steel, rebar has been hit hardest as severe slowdown in Chinese construction sector has taken the fizz out completely in 2015 pushing the export levels to below USD 250 FOB mark. Mills in other regions have also tried to catch up with Chinese aggression but are still far away at USD 280 FOB Black Sea thus presenting a window of further slide even if Chinese mills do not go down further. But with continued weakness on iron ore, further slide of USD 20-25 in Chinese FOB levels in 2016 cannot be ruled out

HRC

The prevalent FOB levels for SS400 grade from China is just a shade above USD 250 mark. The world needs to get used to cheap Chinese steel, with export prices poised to fall further in 2016 as Chinese demand shrinks further. Mr Colin Hamilton, Macquarie Group's head of commodities research, told Bloomberg recently that the price of hot rolled coil may decline about 13 percent in 2016 as Chinese steel exports, which have ballooned to more than 100 million tonnes in 2015, may stay at those levels for the rest of the decade as infrastructure and construction demand continues to falter. Macquarie is forecasting an average price of USD 267.5 a tonne for 2016, down from USD 309 a tonne in 2015.

Base Metals

It has undoubtedly been a year of struggle for every part of the metals industry and few have made it to the other side unscathed. Indeed, many of those still standing will be pleased to have made it through to the end of 2015. 2015 was a year of unprecedented price falls amid a backdrop of weak demand, overproduction and a global economic growth slowdown. A stronger US dollar and slower than expected growth in China have weighed on base metal prices heavily in 2015. Profits fell, production was slashed and warehouse firms had to contend with new regulations amid an ever-stricter regime. It is no surprise then that funds turned their back on the struggling sector there was little to be bullish about. In the Chinese zodiac this year may have been the year of the goat but for the metal industry it was most definitely the year of the bear. Producers have been able to hang on thus far, but if low prices persist, there could be further production curtailments and mine shutdowns down the road. Hopefully that will be a catalyst that will help prices move higher in 2016

Gold

Gold prices haven't really performed so far in 2015, and this phenomenon really has precious metal investors worried about. Not too long ago, Citigroup Inc lowered its forecast for the precious metal. For 2016, the big bank believes gold prices will end at USD 1,050, from earlier forecast of USD 1,195. Other big investment houses hold the very same opinion.

Shipping

The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index BDI, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, is closing 2015 at about 474 down by 35% YoY as all three types of vessels ie Capesize, Panamax and Supramax rates have weakened by 20%, 40% and 29% respectively with declining Chinese growth and consumption in 2015. The index has reached its record high level of 11793 points on 20 May 2008, since its introduction in 1985, which means it is down by 96% now from peak value. The index is often regarded as a forward-looking economic indicator. With about 90 percent of the world's traded goods by volume transported by sea, global investors look to the BDI for any signs of changes in sentiment for industrial demand. According to the Dry Bulk Forecaster report published by global shipping consultancy Drewry, the gloomy outlook for the dry bulk shipping market continues to afflict ship owners and the market is not expected to return to profitability before 2017.

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voda 3 januari 2016 12:46
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Deel 3:

China

Chinese crude steel production is likely to dip by about 2.8% YoY to below 800 million tonne mark in 2015 from 822 million tonnes in 2014 while the steel consumption in 2015 is reported to be down by about more than 5% YoY resulting in sever glut on the supply side forcing Chinese steel mills to become super aggressive on export front to create a yearly record of almost 110 million tonnes as against 93.8 million tonnes in 2014 destroying the global price line. The official GDP growth, which had been above 10%, has slumped to about 6.9%, a six year low as Chinese government has decided to switch to new norm of 7% by focusing an economy that is more consumer led moving from an over reliance on exports and government led investment in infrastructure and manufacturing. While many argue about inaccuracy in 6.9% growth citing much more decline in many other indicators like rail freight volumes, power generation, coal consumption etc, it is certain that the old story is over and we will never see such numbers. Moreover, the power center in Beijing has decided to move away from infrastructure development and manufacturing led economy to “consumption” driven economy wiping out even the remote hopes of recovery in old engines. This has led to a serious decline in steel consumption in China which has peaked in 2014 and as per official figures the same has declined by almost 6% in the first 10 months of 2015. According to the China Iron and Steel Association, apparent steel consumption in China, the world's biggest producer and consumer, fell 5.7 percent to 591 million tonnes in the first 10 months of the year. The steel consumption has been hit badly by woes in construction related steel demand as the property boom is over and Chinese government has reduced investments in building infrastructure. In past it accounted for more than 60% of the steel used in China. While the call for production cuts is growing louder every day in China, only few large companies have undertaken real measure, mostly from the private sectors. As we are aware about the structure of Chinese steel industry, which is besotted with thousands of small province owned steel mills, large scale pruning remains a big challenge due to social issues although currently a growing number of steel products have fallen below margins at many mills despite tremendous cost cut efforts, and now all efforts are approaching the limits. It is estimated that China has almost 300-400 million tonnes of overcapacity and thus production cuts of even 100 million tonnes is not going to cut ice, which is quite improbable considering the social issues involved for state owned mills. Although the Chinese government has issued several directives to remove obsolete and high energy consuming capacities and the consolidation is inevitable, time line for real results could be 2 years to 5-10 years as the demand shrinkage is much higher than reduction in production. In the future, more steel production capacity will become outdated mainly because of market demand rather than tough government policies. Earlier tough environmental policies have driven many small mills to close, and more struggling steel makers will be under further pressure as anti-pollution measures increase costs. According to Fitch “China will add 16 million tonnes of new steel capacity each year in 2016 and 2017 while shutting down 75 to 85 million tonnes of outdated capacity in the next five years, predicting a capacity peak in 2016.”

India

Indian crude steel production is likely to increase by about 2.2% YoY to below 90 million tonne mark in 2015 calendar year from 87 million tonnes in 2014 while the steel consumption in first half of 2015-16 FY is up by 4% YoY as per JPC report although the situation on the ground speaks otherwise that Indian steel consumption growth is minimal. Till about 3 weeks ago input and long product prices were in free fall as the sluggish demand as plenty of availability from main producers and secondary sector was keeping the demand supply equation under severe pressure and prices of flat products were impacted by cheap import cargoes. However, December proved to be month of miracle for Indian steel makers as the news of imposition of Minimum Import Price surfaced in the media resulting in unprecedented rally of upto INR 3000-4000 per tonne in input and long product prices at Raipur in last 20 days although Indian long product market has never been governed by global prices or imports due to meager import volumes. As far as flat products are concerned, the effect of MIP driven sentiments has not been as profound and retail market price shave gains about INR 2000 at Mumbai in last 3 weeks. Thus it is quite difficult to take a view on likely scenario in 2016 as no one is clear about the long term effects if MIP is imposed. Indian steel market is totally detached from global developments as the discussions are still on MIP enforcement and no one is really clear that how the announcement would really impact imports but it is quite likely that for most items imports would become unviable totally stooping imports thus impacting flat product domestic levels. But at the same time, impact of MIP on flat products would not be 100% of difference between MIP and prevailing global levels due to sever glut on the supply side which is forcing Indian steel mills to remain aggressive to maintain their market share. But as steel imports have never governed the market dynamics of Indian secondary steel sector, it would be interesting to see that how the market reacts when the demand supply fundamentals come to forefront in coming months after announcement of MIP, if any

Europe

Nations comprising of European Unions (28) are likely to produce about 16 million tonnes of crude steel in 2015 just 1% YoY lower than 2014. (Germany 43 million tonnes +1%, Italy 24 million tonnes -6%, France 16 million tonnes -6%, Spain 14 million tonnes +5% and UK 12 million tonnes -10%). On the other hand, Other Europe is likely to produce 34 million tonnes of crude steel in 2015 down by about 12% YoY with Turkey accounting for about 31 million tonnes down by 8%. The Eurozone manufacturing remained robust in 2015 with rates of expansion in production and new orders at year end at the fastest for around 18 months. At 52.8 in November, the final seasonally adjusted Eurozone Manufacturing PMI posted its highest level since April 2014 signaling positive conditions. However, European steel market has been severely impacted by cheap imports from China and other countries in in 2015 forcing domestic steel mills to align their prices to combat the aggression of Chinese steel mills resulting in dip in their EXW prices despite having the flexibility of short delivery time. While there has been a flurry of AD probes, EC has been wiser to leave HR and plates out so far as they really impact the steel users in EU. It is quite likely that cheap Chinese steel ie rebars, CR and PPGI etc won't land on shores of EU member countries in 2016 but import onslaught could continue for HR and plates. Another fear is that increased protection of steel mills in EU is bound to damage the highly matured manufacturing sector in EU in long term as the steel consumption could dip due to substitution by end products.

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voda 3 januari 2016 12:48
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Deel 4:

Middle East

According to the estimate derived from November numbers from worldsteel, the production of crude steel in Middle East is likely to dip to about 27 million tonnes in 2015 down by 9% YoY for Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE reflecting serious issues on demand side as the oil price crash has derailed the economic growth and development. As a result, the domestic steel market in Middle East moved down in 2015 in tandem with severe fall in global export prices as the domestic mills decreased their prices to combat cheaper import levels every month. The stockiest business was also severely impacted as the continuous fall in prices decreased the value of their inventories almost every month.

Export Import Scenerio

The Chinese steel mills are very aggressive on export front and Chinese steel has reached more than 210 countries in 2015. As the Chinese steel mills get equal or more realization on exports they have been very aggressive on securing export orders at very low FOB levels, off course adopting chrome route in most cases. According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, China has exported 101.7 million tonnes in the first 11 months of 2015 and the yearly number would be close to 110 million tonnes. The erosion in Chinese export prices in last 12 months of almost 40-50%. As a result, steel mills in other exporting nations have also realigned their prices to maintain their market share. Almost all countries are erecting trade barriers to combat cheap Chinese steel and thus steel exports from China are likely to subside in coming years. Fitch recently said that China's annual steel exports are likely to fall to 70 to 80 million tonnes in the long term. Chances of significant recovery in export prices in 2016 is quite remote and it is likely that FOB prices may stay at levels close to current levels or even go down by about 10-12%.Mr Colin Hamilton, Macquarie Group’s head of commodities research, told Bloomberg recently that the price of hot rolled coil may decline about 13 percent in 2016 as Chinese steel exports, which have ballooned to more than 100 million tonnes this year, may stay at those levels for the rest of the decade as infrastructure and construction demand continues to falter.

Source : Market Intelligence Services PS 14

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voda 3 januari 2016 13:14
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Southeast Asian steel billet market remains slack in December end

Southeast Asia’s billet import market was slack last week due to Christmas holiday reason. The market is expected to continue the status till early January, given low sentiment prevailing in the market.

130mmQ275 billet from China to Thailand was 248 dollars in middle December, CFR. But no trades have been reported in last week, neither in Thailand nor in Philippines. Trader sources said there are no offers in the market because Chinese exporters were not clear about 2016 Export Rebate Policy Beijing just issued on December 4 2015.

In Indonesia, billet demand and sales are also slowing down. An short pickup is expected in the second half of January next year, as Chinese lunar New Year holiday in early February is approaching.

Chinese exporters’ offer for Q235 120mm billet was 230-240 dollars, FOB in the week ending December 25, down 5 dollars from a week ago

Source : SteelHome

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voda 3 januari 2016 13:15
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Morocco to extend safeguard measures on wire rod and steel rebar imports

Turkey Iron and Steel Exporters Association pointed out that Morocco Ministry of industry trade and new technologies have expand the import quota of rebar and wire rod. However, Turkey is still one of the exemption country from safeguards.

Meanwhile, Morocco’s import quotas until the end of 2016, those for wire rods are 121,000 tons, for steel rebars are 72,600 tons. Morocco’s import quotas until the end of 2017, those for wire rods are 133,100 tons, for steel rebars are 79,860 tons.

Safeguard product customs codes are 7213919000, 7214209000 and 7214999100.

Source : Yieh

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voda 3 januari 2016 13:16
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Negotiations on CRGO electrical Sheets for Europe and USA End

The TEX Report Ltd recently published that negotiations on grain-oriented (GO) electrical steel sheets for Europe and the USA by the Japanese mills have been concluded for shipments of the first half of 2016 (January-June). There are slight differences in prices depending on customers but their prices were increased by more than $100 from current prices. Customers are requesting an increase in quantity of laser radiation products being the prime quality ones but the mills are unable to accept all quantities required and are in a state to be necessary to adjust quantities.

Before negotiations, it had been concerned for inquiring quantity to decrease due to the weakened prices of CGO (conventional GO) sheets for general use and the European Commission's affirmative decision on an antidumping (AD) against Japanese products. However, the Japanese mills have specialized in high grades of GO electrical sheets such as laser radiation and HI-B grades. For this reason, a price fall of CGO sheets did not have an impact on the Japanese mills, and the affirmative decision on the AD led adversely to an increase in quantity.

From European customers, demand for the highest-quality laser radiation products drastically increased. Against backdrop of it, there is the fact that in Europe, efficiency of transformers is required and accordingly, demand for higher quantity of products is increasing. As a result of the affirmative decision on the AD, AD duties of 35.9-39.0% are imposed on Japanese products while the minimum import prices (MIPs) have been set depending on grades of products, and if export prices exceed such MIPs, no problems happen. Therefore, once export prices exceed the MIPs, as there are no limits in both of prices and quantities, customers' orders of Japanese laser radiation products are to increase. During the AD investigation, European mills were said to be able to supply sufficiently but the Japanese mills are seeing that this was not true.

In negotiations of this time, prices of customers' overseas companies have also been settled at the same time. Accordingly, prices for their overseas companies in North America, Central and South America, India and China have also been increased by more than $100.

As a result that customers are increasing orders for highest-grade GO sheets, the Japanese mills have to increase production of thinner thickness GO sheets, so their production quantity decreases. For this reason, supply of high-grade products like laser radiation ones are likely to become tight further in the second half of the next year.

While, prices of CGO sheets are weakening in China, India and so on. It is because each mill produced too much quantity due to an increase in prices. Meantime, Allegheny Ludlum of the USA announced to withdraw from the CGO sheet market next year. Some of Chinese mills are also said to be seeking withdrawal. If so, production capacities of 200-300 thousand tons a year are reduced in the world. The balance of supply-demand is to be largely improved. Prices are also though to rebound.

As a result, the situation is certain for a tight feeling on supply of GO electrical sheets to continue centering on high-grade products.

Source : The TEX Report Ltd

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Indonesian steel mills urge to tighten SNI norms on imports

BISNIS.COM reported that Indonesian steel producers expect the government to expedite efforts protecting the domestic steel industry by tightening the Indonesian National Standards (SNI) requirements and setting a minimum import tariff.

PT Krakatau Steel marketing director Mr Dadang Danusiri said that a steel imports management would be necessary due to the oversupply of steel on the world market. Such a move, Mr Dadang added, would have an impact on national steel producers to improve their factory utilizations in a bid to reduce significant profit losses.

He said “Steel markets are racing to keep steel imports that will destroy their domestic steel industries. The oversupply will cause a declining steel prices.”

China’s steel demands dropped by 7.5 percent in July 2015, which was the lowest since the 2008 financial crises. This year, China’s steel demands is predicted to decline by 3.4 percent when compared to last year. As a result, steel producers in China will shift their focus to the international market as reflected by an increase in China’s steel exports by 32.1 percent in September 2015 when compared to the same period last year.

Therefore, Mr Dadang said steel producers around the globe would ask their respective governments to protect the domestic steel industries.

Source : BISNIS.COM

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Essar Steel Minnesota agrees to terms to pay back state aid

News Tribune Today reported that Essar Steel Minnesota has agreed to Gov. Mark Dayton’s “final offer” to pay back $65.9 million that the company owes the state for breach of a 2008 economic development agreement, Dayton and Essar announced Thursday.

Essar spokesman Mr Mitch Brunfelt said “In response to the December 23 letter from Gov. Dayton’s office, Essar has communicated to the governor that Essar accepts the state’s proposed repayment terms. We are pleased that the parties have succeeded in bringing closure to this important matter. With this issue resolved, Essar will continue to focus its efforts on keeping payments flowing to our contractors and vendors and on moving forward again with this historic project.”

Gov Dayton said “This project is tremendously important to the Iron Range, supporting more than 700 construction jobs and an expected 350 permanent jobs once the plant opens. Essar Steel Minnesota CEO Madhu Vuppuluri’s willingness to accept the state’s final offer and repay the loan because it did not live up to the terms of its original agreement is an important step to move this project forward.”

Last week Gov Dayton had sent Essar Steel Minnesota President Madhu Vuppuluri a letter demanding the company accept his terms by December 30. Those terms require Essar to start making payments in February, with $10 million due by the end of March. The remainder of the state aid would be paid in 16 quarterly payments starting March 31, 2017

Essar broke ground for the new, nearly $1.9 billion mine and processing plant in 2008 but construction has progressed in fits and starts. The company has essentially been in default on the $65.9 million grant since October because it failed to live up to an agreement to create jobs at an iron and steelmaking facility in Nashwauk by that date. The company has moved ahead with building a taconite plant, but has shelved plans to make iron and steel at the Nashwauk site.

Source : News Tribune Today

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Megasteel counters Misif allegation on safeguard duty on HRC

The Star reported that Megasteel Sdn Bhd has countered the Malaysian Iron and Steel Industry Federation’s (Misif) statement that its petition has no merit, and even launched an attack of its own on Misif’s remark that foreign steel players can file their case to the World Trade Organisation

The hot rolled coils maker said in a statement that its petition for safeguard duties had merit, having been gazetted by the International Trade & Industry Ministry. It said “The petition was thus deemed to have fulfilled the necessary conditions and requirements including under the WTO and therefore, merits consideration.”

Megasteel said it had the right to seek trade remedy measures such as anti-dumping and safeguard duties against HRC imports “which are causing serious injury to the local HRC industry which has two producers, Megasteel and Southern Steel Bhd, whose production are adversely affected by such imports.”

Megasteel said Misif’s threat to take legal action only served to undermine the Malaysian authorities’ jurisdiction even before any ruling can be made. It said “On this note, Misif’s call to foreign steel players to file their case to WTO against Megasteel’s petition not only questions Miti’s authority and the ministry’s right to accept and decide on such petitions, but most alarmingly, raises doubts on Misif’s agenda in exhorting foreign steel players to take action against local steelmakers, which can be seen as an act of subversion towards our national interests and financial stability. Similarly, Megasteel reserves the right to take appropriate legal action against relevant parties should its interests be jeopardized.”

On Misif’s contention that Megasteel’s HRC prices are higher than the world average HRC prices, the company pointed out that its prices were guided by the price mechanism sanctioned by Miti and it had never sold above the price allowed under the mechanism.

Misif reportedly told a press conference that the federation was prepared to take legal action as a last resort to block Megasteel’s petition.

The Lion Corp subsidiary recently asked the Government to impose safeguard duties on the imports of HRC at the rate of 40%, on top of the existing 15% import duties on HRC, with the rate being gradually reduced over a four-year period.

Source : The Star

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EEPC seeks intervention to halt move on minimum import price for steel

Engineering exporters’ apex body, EEPC India has approached the Commerce Ministry with a strong objection to a further move for restricting steel imports by way of fixing Minimum Import Price(MIP) , stating there is no justification for the government to help handful of big steel makers at the cost of millions of SME export firms which will be forced to pay much higher price for their raw material.

In a detailed presentation to the Commerce Secretary Ms Rita Teotia, Chairman of EEPC India Mr T S Bhasin said if the MIPs at a level being debated , are imposed, the landed cost of a variety of steel products would more than double, raising question mark on the sheer survival of the engineering exporters.

EEPC presentation to the ministry stated “This is being done to protect the handful of primary steel producers on the grounds that they are overleveraged and their bank loans could become NPAs. Since June 2015, the steel sector has been provided a range of protection including the raising of import duties by five per cent on all categories of steel and imposition of safeguard duties on more than 62 steel products. Further safeguard measures are being contemplated on steel plates and slabs. All this is being done without taking into consideration that the impact of such action will have on the small scale sector of the economy which contributes nearly 45 per cent of industrial production and 35 per cent of exports.”

It said if the MIPs are imposed then it would be a “complete destruction of the the Medium and Small Scale engineering sector. As it is, the engineering exports have fallen by over 14 per cent in the first eight months of the current fiscal to USD 39.85 billion from USD 46.55 billion in the comparable period of last year”.

Mr Bhasin also raised certain concern on behalf of exporters over implementation of the Goods and Services Tax. “ We suggest that the filing of all returns should be at a single window. Who will refund the SGST & CGST is not clear? Refund should be available from a Single window only. Seeking refunds from two agencies will complicate the issues. Similarly refunds should be on continuous basis and not quarterly/half yearly basis. This will save exporters from over employment of scarce capital and transaction cost. Infact with GST both VAT and excise duty will get stuck and create further anomalies”

Further, the EEPC India also sought increase in the duty drawback rates since the rate hike in the recent past has been quite marginal for most of the items.

Source : Strategic Research Institute

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voda 3 januari 2016 13:20
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Taiwanese steel scrap import in October dips by 55% YoY

Taiwan's ferrous scrap imports totaled 149,000 tons in October 2015, down 55.0% from the same month of a year ago, indicating a year-on-year decrease for five consecutive months from June 2015, when they fell short of 200,000 tons for three consecutive months, according to Taiwanese trade statistics.

Of the total, the USA supplied the largest quantity of 83,000 tons or 55.6%, down 45.4% from the same month of a year ago; Japan the second largest of 32,000 tons, down 51.5%; and Hong Kong the third largest of 9,000 tons, down 62.8%.

In January-October 2015, Taiwan's ferrous scrap imports totaled 2,978,000 tons, down 15.1% from the same period of 2014, averaging 298,000 tpm, when its cumulative imports translated into an annualized 3,570,000 tons.

Of the total, the USA provided the largest amount of 1,353,000 tons or 45.4%, down 30.4%; Japan the second largest of 786,000 tons or 26.4%, up 109.2%; Hong Kong the third largest of 169,000 tons or 5.7%, down 11.5%; and Australia the fourth largest of 90,000 tons or 3.0%, down 26.2%. As a result, the USA and Japan together accounted for 71.8% of the total.

Source : The TEX Report Ltd

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voda 3 januari 2016 13:23
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POSCO developing eXtra Advanced HSS for auto makers

Korea Herald reported that dor lighter, stronger auto body frames, Korea’s top steelmaker POSCO has been producing advanced high-strength steel, the latest steel sheet production technology, with growing market demand. Advanced high-strength steel is one of the fastest-growing material markets in the automotive industry in and out of the country, as it offers enhanced formability and is lighter in weight but stronger than other steel products.

With a growing number of carmakers developing lighter but stronger vehicles to enhance fuel efficiency and better shapes, the global market demand for this premium steel product has been on the rise. Currently, the adoption rate of AHSS products for body frames manufactured by Korean carmakers has already exceeded 20 percent. The adoption rate in the North American market is estimated to jump to 35 percent this year, from 10 percent in 2007.

The premium auto steel sheet sector has been POSCO’s major growth engine, since it has been facing risks from weakening profits and China’s economic slowdown.

POSCO also plans to develop and commercialize an upgraded version of AHSS, namely “eXtra Advanced HSS,” to meet carmakers’ demands for new steel sheets that are cost effective, stronger and ductile.

Source : Korea Herald

Bijlage:

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voda 3 januari 2016 13:23
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POSCO developing eXtra Advanced HSS for auto makers

Korea Herald reported that dor lighter, stronger auto body frames, Korea’s top steelmaker POSCO has been producing advanced high-strength steel, the latest steel sheet production technology, with growing market demand. Advanced high-strength steel is one of the fastest-growing material markets in the automotive industry in and out of the country, as it offers enhanced formability and is lighter in weight but stronger than other steel products.

With a growing number of carmakers developing lighter but stronger vehicles to enhance fuel efficiency and better shapes, the global market demand for this premium steel product has been on the rise. Currently, the adoption rate of AHSS products for body frames manufactured by Korean carmakers has already exceeded 20 percent. The adoption rate in the North American market is estimated to jump to 35 percent this year, from 10 percent in 2007.

The premium auto steel sheet sector has been POSCO’s major growth engine, since it has been facing risks from weakening profits and China’s economic slowdown.

POSCO also plans to develop and commercialize an upgraded version of AHSS, namely “eXtra Advanced HSS,” to meet carmakers’ demands for new steel sheets that are cost effective, stronger and ductile.

Source : Korea Herald

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voda 3 januari 2016 13:25
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Capital Economics says iron ore could fall into USD 20s in 2016

Bloomberg reported that according to Capital Economics, iron ore may be in for a roller-coaster ride in 2016 as prices sink into the US20s. According to Caroline Bain, the forecaster’s London-based senior commodities economist, who correctly predicted in June that prices would sink into the $US30s this half, iron ore may initially drop as low-cost supplies rise further, helping the top producers to expand market share

Bain said “We have a modestly higher price for iron ore of just over $US50 a tonne by end-2016 but that does not rule out prices falling below $US30. In fact, it might be necessary in order to get to our higher price target.”

Bain, referring to Rio, BHP, Vale and Fortescue Metals Group, said “It is hard to see the Big Four cutting production by much, although they are unlikely to be investing in expansion or new projects. But we think production elsewhere – notably in China – will be cut at current prices or lower. We expect the Big Four to continue to take market share in China as the iron ore is higher quality and it is now so cheap.”

Source : Bloomberg

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voda 3 januari 2016 13:27
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Base metals to face another storm in 2016

Reuters reported that copper and zinc shed a quarter of their value this year while nickel collapsed more than 40 percent as slowing growth in top consumer China, a supply overhang and a strong dollar hammered prices of industrial metals. Worries about tighter supplies capped lead's losses at four percent, while aluminium and tin ceded 17 percent and 25 percent respectively, on concern about market surpluses.

A rising US currency makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for non US firms. Investors are hoping base metals are over the worst. But some fund managers and analysts expect further losses next year before miners make significant output cuts to offset slowing demand growth.

Tiberius Asset Management Chief Executive Christoph Eibl said "We've come a long way, but 2016 will probably be another lost year for commodities, though we should see a bottom. The supply overhang needs to be corrected, which will be painful because that means giving up market share and restructuring. I think this will happen next year."

Much of the focus next year will remain on China, the world's largest consumer of industrial metals and particularly on its industrial production data, which has a strong correlation with demand for metals.

Source : Reuters

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gerrit 69 3 januari 2016 17:23
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Hallo Voda
Nog de beste wensen voor het nieuwe jaar en dat de AEX nu maar eens minimaal naar de 500 zal stijgen, want de beurs heeft het jaar 2015 toch maar teleurstellend afgesloten.
De bijlage op je post van 13.23 uur kan ik echter niet openen.
Of dit wat toevoegt aan je post blijft een open vraag.

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voda 3 januari 2016 17:52
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quote:
gerrit 69 schreef op 3 januari 2016 17:23:
Hallo Voda
Nog de beste wensen voor het nieuwe jaar en dat de AEX nu maar eens minimaal naar de 500 zal stijgen, want de beurs heeft het jaar 2015 toch maar teleurstellend afgesloten.
De bijlage op je post van 13.23 uur kan ik echter niet openen.
Of dit wat toevoegt aan je post blijft een open vraag.
Hallo Gerrit, ook nog de beste wensen natuurlijk.

Er is momenteel een algeheel probleem op de IEX om bijlagen te plaatsen. (en vooral te openen, bijlagen die vanaf 31 december gepostst zijn.). De bijlage in dit gewas was wel interessant.
Zal het later nog eens opnieuw proberen.

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voda 4 januari 2016 16:25
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More predators!

Japanese steel makers to produce UHTS steel overseas

NKH reported that Japanese steel manufacturers plan to begin overseas production of a stronger and lighter Ultra-high tensile strength steel, which has 3 or more times the strength of other types of steel.

Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal plans to start annual production of 120,000 tons of the material at its plant in the US state of Alabama this year.

Kobe Steel intends to begin producing ultra-high tensile strength steel at its factory in the Chinese province of Liaoning this spring. The plant is under construction.

JFE Steel is also scheduled to start making ultra-high tensile strength steel at one of its plants in China, Thailand or India by the end of the year.

The firms aim to market the material to Japanese automakers operating in those nations. They hope that it will be seen as an alternative to carbon fiber and aluminum for manufacturing auto parts.

A researcher at Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal says UHTSS can be mass-produced more quickly than carbon fiber and other materials. He adds that his company wants to further boost the competitiveness of steel.

Source : NKH

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voda 4 januari 2016 16:26
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Asian buyers of TMBP eying lower prices from Japanese steel mills in Q1

The TEX Report Ltd reported that negotiations on tin mill black plates for Asia have started for shipments in January-March quarter. The Japanese mills seem to have offered levelling off of prices. Against this, customers are strongly insisting that prices of material loam plates from Japan are necessary to be continuously reduced to counteract China's cheap steel tinplates for the next quarter as well as this quarter.

China's domestic prices of tinplates dropped by around $40 in October-December to the low $700's in dollar equivalent. A sales offensive at cheap prices by Chinese tinplate mills continues against customers to purchase tinplates from overseas tinplates mills in China (Japanese, Taiwanese and so on). However, as Chinese blast furnace mills left their domestic prices of hot-rolled steel coils and cold-rolled steel sheets for general use unchanged for January shipment, there is a possibility for their sales offensive to become calm hereafter.

In Asia, amid Chinese mills' offering huge discounts of tinplates, the Japanese mills withstood negotiations on loam plates and tinplates with a minimum decrease in prices for shipments of this quarter. As a result, the price difference between China and Japan expanded further.

Customers are requesting a substantial decrease in prices on the grounds that there is Chinese mills' price-cutting offensive and there is a necessity to reduce the price difference with Chinese mills.

The Japanese mills are offering levelling off of prices as being honest prices in negotiations of this time explaining that the range of a price fall of common steel products has been narrowed and Chinese mills' price-cutting offensive comes close to a limit. They are saying to expect that prices will rebound from the latter half of the next quarter.

Source : The TEX Report Ltd

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