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Ed Verbeek schreef op 28 mei 2020 21:43 :
[...]:-) Leuke reactie bb.
Dan ben ik maar gek, want +35% (vanaf de high van 17 februari ) is AEX
853 sluit ik inderdaad uit, althans het komende jaar :-)
"Echter raakt het in deze crisis vooral de armsten van de amste (bron is de FED). Dit is niet de groep die de grootste impact op de economie gaat hebben." Maar bb, ik schreef net dat de totale impact op de economie (GDP)
nu al -41,9% op jaarbasis is voor 2020 Q2!
(bron GDP-Now, Atlanta FED)
Ed je begrijpt het verkeerd wat ik zeg. Je kijkt naar het verleden. Die 41% heeft niks met werklozen te maken. Dat zijn de lockdowns dat was die daling van 600 tot onder de 400. Ik bedoel nu we langzaam overal uit de lockdowns komen zou er in het meest optimistische scenario een V herstel kunnen komen. De mensen die nu ontslagen zijn zijn sowieso niet de big spenders die gaan consumeren. Dat is de grote middenklasse.
Stocks’ Recent Rally Is Driven by Bears, Not Bulls. Why It Might Stop Soon. barrons.com/articles/stocks-recent-ra...
Ed Verbeek schreef op 27 mei 2020 20:19 :
[...]The GDPNow model estimate for real
GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in Q2 of 2020 is
-41,9% (vgl gdp krimp USA 2009: -2,5%, Q1 2020: -4,8% en -13,1% over het hele jaar 1932, the worst year of the Great Depression)
Update: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in Q2 of 2020 is -52,8% (dieptepunt GDP tijdens de Great Depression: -25%) De laatste 11 weken zijn er 43 miljoen unemployment benefits aangevraagd. Op een beroepsbevolking van 164.6 (in februari) is dat 26% Unemployment april: 15% Expected unemployment voor mei: bijna 20% (hoogtpunt werkloosheid tijden de Great Depression: 23%) Denken er nog steeds mensen aan een V-shape recovery? Alleen de particulieren (!) die de laatste 2 maanden massaal de aandelen stapten.
Ed Verbeek schreef op 4 juni 2020 15:17 :
[...]
Denken er nog steeds mensen aan een V-shape recovery?
Alleen de particulieren (!) die de laatste 2 maanden massaal de aandelen stapten.
Tel Goldman Sachs door maar bij op. Die hebben hun S&P koersdoel aangepast van een 20% daling naar een stijging naar 3200 nu. Ook Ray Dalio is de laatste 2 maanden in aandelen gestapt. Het zijn zeker niet alleen de particulieren. Om de bal terug te kaatsen. Lees het IEX forum en zoek de bulls nu. Het zijn er een handje vol. Denk dat er meer particulieren short zitten dan long op het moment. Voor particulieren is het namelijk moeilijk verder te kijken dan de huidige stand van zaken en het huidige nieuws. Ja, dan zitten we in een hele zware recessie. Er middenin.
bearishbull schreef op 4 juni 2020 16:38 :
Denk dat er meer particulieren short zitten dan long op het moment.
Hmm ja, daar heb je wel gelijk in: financialoccultist.com/2020/06/03/sho...
bearishbull schreef op 4 juni 2020 16:38 :
Ook Ray Dalio is de laatste 2 maanden in aandelen gestapt. Het zijn zeker niet alleen de particulieren.
Maar daarentegen is Gundlach vorige week weer S&P 500 short gegaan. Dus het zijn zeker niet alleen de particulieren die short gaan ;-)thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=307... en ook: "Institutional investors are shorting the S&P 500 Index at levels not seen since 2016."www.ccn.com/smart-money-bearish-stock...
Aandelen omhoog, maar consensus forward earnings nauwelijks : tinyurl.com/yc3nogoq
The shocking rally in U.S. stocks has claimed another bear: Stan Druckenmiller trib.al/aPjSZnq
asti schreef op 18 mei 2020 12:38 :
'What’s the most shorted sector? The answer might surprise you' www.marketwatch.com/story/whats-the-m... Not that surprised.
Sindsdien : Invesco Nasdaq Biotech: -5% (MSCI World: +5%) Not that surprised ;-)
Voor degenen die op een V - recovery hopen: The Illusion of a Rapid US RecoveryThe United States has built an economy based on global demand for advanced goods, consumer demand for frills, and ever-growing household and business debts. This economy was in many ways prosperous, and it provided jobs and incomes to many millions. Yet it was a house of cards, and COVID-19 has blown it down. “To get America moving again, what is mainly needed is confidence, perhaps aided by stimulus.“ This is how mainstream center-left economists and policymakers have thought about recessions and recoveries since at least the 1960s. But it ignores three major changes in the US economy since then: globalization, the rise of services in consumption and employment, and the impact of personal and corporate debts. In the 1960s, the US had a balanced economy that produced goods for both businesses and households, at all levels of technology, with a fairly small (and tightly regulated) financial sector. It produced largely for itself, importing mainly commodities. Today, the US produces for the world, mainly advanced investment goods and services, in sectors such as aerospace, information technology, arms, oilfield services, and finance. And it imports far more consumer goods, such as clothing, electronics, cars, and car parts, than it did a half-century ago. And whereas cars, televisions, and household appliances drove US consumer demand in the 1960s, a much larger share of domestic spending today goes (or went) to restaurants, bars, hotels, resorts, gyms, salons, coffee shops, and tattoo parlors, as well as college tuition and doctor’s visits. Tens of millions of Americans work in these sectors. Finally, American household spending in the 1960s was powered by rising wages and growing home equity. But wages have been largely stagnant since at least 2000, and spending increases since 2010 were powered by rising personal and corporate debts. House values are now stagnant at best, and will likely fall in the months ahead.Mainstream economics pays little attention to such structural questions . Instead, it assumes that business investment responds mostly to the consumer, whose spending is dictated equally by income and desire. The distinction between “essential” and “superfluous” does not exist. Debt burdens are largely ignored.But demand for many US-made capital goods now depends on global conditions. Orders for new aircraft will not recover while half of all existing planes are grounded. At current prices, the global oil industry is not drilling new wells. Even at home, though existing construction projects may be completed, plans for new office towers or retail outlets won’t be launched soon. And as people commute less, cars will last longer, so demand for them (and gasoline) will suffer.Faced with radical uncertainty, US consumers will save more and spend less. Even if the government replaces their lost incomes for a time, people know that stimulus is short term. What they do not know is when the next job offer – or layoff – will come along. Moreover, people do distinguish between needs and wants. Americans need to eat, but they mostly don’t need to eat out. They don’t need to travel. Restaurant owners and airlines therefore have two problems: they can’t cover costs while their capacity is limited for public-health reasons, and demand would be down even if the coronavirus disappeared. This explains why many businesses are not reopening even though they legally can. Others are reopening, but fear they cannot hold out for long. And the many millions of workers in America’s vast services sector are realizing that their jobs are simply not essential.Meanwhile, US household debts – rent, mortgage, and utility arrears, as well as interest on education and car loans – have continued to mount. True, stimulus checks have helped: defaults have so far been modest, and many landlords have been accommodating. But as people face long periods with lower incomes, they will continue to hoard funds to ensure that they can repay their fixed debts. As if all this were not enough, falling sales- and income-tax revenues are prompting US state and local governments to cut spending, compounding the loss of jobs and incomes.America’s economic plight is structural. It is not simply the consequence of Trump’s incompetence or House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s poor political strategy. It reflects systemic changes over 50 years that have created an economy based on global demand for advanced goods, consumer demand for frills, and ever-growing household and business debts. This economy was in many ways prosperous, and it provided jobs and incomes to many millions. Yet it was a house of cards, and COVID-19 has blown it down. “Reopen America” is therefore an economic and political fantasy. Uit: www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/...
Ed, als ik het dan goed begrepen heb, zal het geen V herstel worden maar 'n vierkantswortel teken herstel.
U.S. markets are falling. The Dow is off over 1% trib.al/SXWo16i
Why investors may want to brace for a ‘gut check’ summer sell-off cnbc.com/2020/06/10/brace-for-a-gut-c...
Markets continue to sell off. The S&P is down nearly 3% trib.al/L4AGYL2
het zwaard schreef op 10 juni 2020 09:45 :
Ed, als ik het dan goed begrepen heb, zal het geen V herstel worden maar 'n vierkantswortel teken
herstel.
Dit gaat wiskundige tekens ver te boven. Ik dacht iets als dit, maar dan 30 jaar verschoven: natecarroll.files.wordpress.com/2013/... Nou ja, iets minder erg kan ook ;-)
O wacht er is natuurlijk wèl een wiskundig/logisch teken voor: het wordt een /\ herstel ...... want een conjunctie van aandelen- èn obligatiebubble.
Is het V herstel niet gewoon al achter de rug op de beurzen? Maar een \/\ kan natuurlijk nog.
Here’s why one strategist has slashed his S&P 500 target — and it isn’t just because of the Fed and COVID-19 www.marketwatch.com/discover?url=http...
Je kunt alle letters van het alfabet zien in koersen, uiteindelijk gaat het alleen maar om de volgende letters: p l u s of m i n.
"Just A Huge Bear Market Rally?" Stocks Tumble On Fears Of Second Virus Wave www.zerohedge.com/markets/just-huge-b...
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