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Home  /  Forum  /  Arcelor Mittal  /  ARCELOR MITTAL december 2015

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Aandeel ArcelorMittal AEX:MT.NL, LU1598757687

  • 24,480 20 mei 2024 11:20
  • +0,210 (+0,87%) Dagrange 24,360 - 24,670
  • 712.110 Gem. (3M) 2,6M

ARCELOR MITTAL december 2015

6.159 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 263 264 265 266 267 ... 308 »» | Laatste | Omlaag ↓
  20. [verwijderd] 27 december 2015 23:01

    By Shefali Anand
    It's that time of the year, when analysts make predictions about how Indian stocks will perform next year. But, with their dismal track record from last year, should they bother?
    After Indian markets rose 30% in 2014 and investors were expecting big reforms in the economy, analysts were bullish going into 2015. All major global brokerage firms predicted the market would rise 15% to 20% this year.
    However, with just a few trading days left, India's S&P BSE Sensex is down 6%, while the Nifty 50, the other major index, is down 5.1%.
    Critics say the market is too complex and driven by too many variables for people to predict with any kind of accuracy. "These market timing forecasts make for great news stories but they are completely and totally useless in investing," says Aswath Damodaran, a finance professor at New York University.
    The predictions also show a typical investor bias of putting too much weight on recent history. "If the Sensex went up last year, then on the back of that everybody will be predicting a higher number" and vice versa, says Arun Jethmalani, managing director of ValueNotes Strategic Intelligence Pvt. Ltd., a Pune-based market-research firm. "What they're trying to do is impossible."
    Between their optimistic forecasts and the market's weak performance, investment banks such as Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank AG, and Morgan Stanley, missed their targets by more than 20%. The firms had expected the Sensex to be between 32500 and 33000 by the end of this year, and it closed ahead of Christmas on Thursday at 25838.71.
    Spokesmen for Citigroup, Bank of America, and Deutsche Bank declined to comment on their Sensex predictions. Some of these firms revised their Sensex targets downward during the year, and their targets for 2016 are now lower than what they had expected this year.
    Some firms also had a target for the Nifty index. Citigroup and Deutsche Bank predicted 9850 and 9936, respectively. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the Nifty would touch 9500 and UBS Group AG predicted that it would be at 9600 by now. The Nifty closed at 7861.05 on Thursday, some 17% to 20% lower than the forecasts.
    Goldman Sachs remains bullish, though it is lowering its expectations, now saying the market will be closer to 9000 at the end of next year. "We estimate India to deliver 13% in dollar terms, the highest in Asia," said Tushar Poddar, Goldman's India economist, at a recent press briefing. Spokesmen for Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank and UBS declined to comment on their Nifty predictions.
    Market analysts say that more than the index target, they focus on providing guidance about the trends that will play out in the market, and the economy, which can help investors make broader investment calls.
    "Targets are tools, not the endgame," says Ridham Desai, head of Indian equity research at Morgan Stanley. "Our job is really to provide a framework to investors so that they can build the right portfolio to outperform the market," he says.
    For instance, Mr. Desai says he had expected that domestic investors would be big buyers of Indian stocks this year, something that has panned out. For 2016, Mr. Desai expects a revival in India's consumption and greater infrastructure spending. He expects the Sensex could go as high as 30200 by December 2016.
    One reason the analysts were wrong about the market is they were wrong about Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ability to push through long-pending reforms.
    "We expect 2015 to be a good year," Citigroup's India equity analysts Aditya Narain and Jitender Tokas wrote in a November 2014 research note in which they predicted the Sensex would touch 33,000 by end of 2015. "We see government-driven reform as a constant; a mix of execution and policy (in that order), backed by ongoing monetary/financial sector evolution," they wrote.
    When parliament shut down in late December 2015, a bill that would have created a uniform national goods and services tax, which investors had expected to be cleared by this year, hadn't passed.
    Some analysts haven't yet published their outlooks for 2016. UBS, which in November 2014 had said the Nifty would touch 9600 by year-end 2015, this fall cut its Nifty target to 8200 for this year. It hasn't yet published in Nifty 2016 target.
    Analysts also hadn't counted on global factors that have hurt India. In the summer, global investors pulled money out of all emerging markets over concerns that China, and thus the global economy, would grow slower than thought.
    "It's tough because you're living in a world which is very fluid," says Prabhat Awasthi, head of India equity at Japan's Nomura Group. "There is a science behind valuations but the variables themselves are subject to change," he says. Nomura had expected the Sensex to be at 33500 by the end of this year.
    A sharp decline in commodity prices has also hurt, because profits for India's major oil, metals and mining companies have shrunk this year, and some have incurred losses. These companies are a big part of the Sensex, and their poor earnings have dragged the overall index lower.
    Mr. Awasthi says it isn't fair to dismiss targets altogether. His year-end Sensex target in 2013 was nearly bang on, while in 2014, the Sensex ended 11% above his original target. Mr. Awasthi remains optimistic about India's prospects, he says.
    Write to Shefali Anand at shefali.anand@wsj.com
    (END) Dow Jones Newswires
    December 27, 2015 16:51 ET (21:51 GMT)
    © 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
6.159 Posts
Pagina: «« 1 ... 263 264 265 266 267 ... 308 »» | Laatste |Omhoog ↑

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