BultiesBrothers schreef op 19 april 2020 18:58:
Als ik de Q1 update van Southeastern Capital Management erbij pak (longleaf small cap fund - waar OCI binnen valt), diverseren ze hun portefeuille in 3 categorien:
southeasternasset.com/mutual-fund-com...Categorie 1) "Those where we expect minimal long-term impact and/or see the potential for the company to at least partially benefit from the current situation. We generally expect to see a small near-term value impact but significant long-term value growth potential from these businesses that can more than make up for today’s pain."
Categorie 2: "Those that we expect to feel a larger near-term hit (a mid-teens percentage decrease on average), but where we feel highly confident over the long term."
Categorie 3: "Those where we expect to see a more material near-term hit and a potential long-term impairment to appraisal. While it is difficult to know how long the current crisis will continue, we could potentially see some material value declines (20% or greater on average) in this smaller group of businesses,"
Ze plaatsen OCI in de laatste categorie en zeggen daarbij het volgende specifiek over dit aandeel: "Nitrogen fertilizer company OCI has a significant amount of FX and commodity pricing risk (as it tends to track with oil prices) outside of its control, combined with debt that would be fine during normal or even slightly stressed times but might be a bit higher than the company would want if they could start fresh today. However, the company has been able to move to maintenance capex and generate FCF in this environment."
Het is dus gissen of ze volledig van hun belang in OCI af willen of dat ze hun kapitaal in OCI deels aan herverdelen zijn, door het in andere aandelen te stoppen (categorie 1 aandelen)