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Sky ik ben overgestapt naar Euronav, ben benieuwd wat hij morgen gaat doen 1 dag voor de cijfers, de koers staat behoorlijk laag, heb veel positieve verhalen gelezen, gewoon een gokje, ik heb er 450 tegen 10.335 stijgen ze 1 euro ben ik al dik tevreden.
tonneke schreef op 26 januari 2016 16:55 :
Sky ik ben overgestapt naar Euronav, ben benieuwd wat hij morgen gaat doen 1 dag voor de cijfers, de koers staat behoorlijk laag, heb veel positieve verhalen gelezen, gewoon een gokje, ik heb er 450 tegen 10.335 stijgen ze 1 euro ben ik al dik tevreden.
Ik raad je aan om vlug winst te pakken, zeer volatiel, kan 30 a 40 cent schommelen per dag = tradersaandeel., of blijven zitten voor het divident. Ik wil je geen schrik aan jagen , koopadviezen ondersteunen de koers en de grote jongens weten dat ook. Pas op dat zij donderdag niet allen verkopen ( sell on the news ) Ik hoop voor jou dat het mag lukken.
Valt aan Celyad nog weinig plezier te beleven ...
Bedankt voor het advies Sky, prettige avond.
Sky-jumper schreef op 26 januari 2016 18:13 :
Valt aan Celyad nog weinig plezier te beleven ...
0,0 ..is m'n slechtste belegging in 2016. Heb er in 2015 best goed aan verdiend. Probleem dat ik heb is dat ik er te weinig vanaf weet. Het is leuk dat spreiden maar dan kom je soms net te kort. Het is ook best een risicovolle belegging. Ik wisselde Celyad ritjes af met Genfit. Nu zit ik een beetje gevangen. Moet flink bijkopen om m'n gemiddelde onder de 40 te brengen...En dan moet de koers ook nog een een €4 stijgen. Dat wordt echt een risicovolle exercitie. Voorlopig wacht ik daarom af. Echt nieuws voor Celyad komt pas in Juli (klopt dat?) Begin mei is er pas een shareholder meeting. Ook lekker (..) Ik houd me vast aan de koersdoelen. Tsja een zijden draad.
Natte krant schreef op 26 januari 2016 18:24 :
[...]
0,0 ..is m'n slechtste belegging in 2016. Heb er in 2015 best goed aan verdiend.
Probleem dat ik heb is dat ik er te weinig vanaf weet.
Het is leuk dat spreiden maar dan kom je soms net te kort.
Het is ook best een risicovolle belegging. Ik wisselde Celyad ritjes af met Genfit.
Nu zit ik een beetje gevangen. Moet flink bijkopen om m'n gemiddelde onder de 40 te brengen...En dan moet de koers ook nog een een €4 stijgen. Dat wordt echt een risicovolle exercitie. Voorlopig wacht ik daarom af.
Echt nieuws voor Celyad komt pas in Juli (klopt dat?)
Begin mei is er pas een shareholder meeting. Ook lekker (..)
Ik houd me vast aan de koersdoelen. Tsja een zijden draad.
Ja, bij mij is dat ook zo, maar ik blijf erbij dat de koers op al of niet legale manier werd gemanipuleerd. Er was echt geen reden waarom de koers zo erg moest zakken. Heb hier 3K aan verloren . Als ik mijn centen terug heb, keer ik biotech definitief de rug toe. Je moet elke dag echt op je hoede zijn en dat is ook geen leven. Bovendien geen divident. PS : De data bovenstaand kloppen wel maar ik hou het zeker nog in de gaten zolang ik er niet uit ben.
Heren ik heb nog een mooi artikel gevonden van 24-12-2015.seekingalpha.com/article/3775976-cely... Celyad: An Unknown Biotech That Will Fix Your Broken Heart Dec. 24, 2015 12:07 PM ET| About: Celyad (CYAD) Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in CYAD over the next 72 hours. (More...) Summary I examine Celyad, which is an under-covered, small-cap biotech with a number of catalysts in 2016. The biggest catalyst for CYAD will be when it presents data on its lead product in mid- 2016 for the treatment of heart failure. Based on future sales projections, I estimated that the company is undervalued by nearly 74%. In this article, I will be detailing why Celyad (NASDAQ:CYAD) is my best long idea for 2016. Celyad is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company that is focused on using specialized cell-based therapies in the areas of cardiology and oncology. The market has not come around to CYAD yet because investors do not follow or do not know about the company and it currently has no approved products on the market. There are three catalysts that will shine a light on Celyad in 2016, and those include Phase III data on its lead product C-Cure in Europe, which will be due in mid-2016, as well as Phase I/IIa trial data on its new immuno-oncology therapy NKG2D. In addition, Celyad will be attending a major healthcare conference in early January. The Science Celyad's lead product is C-Cure, which is for the treatment of heart failure after a heart attack. According to a description of C-Cure on its website: "It is designed to produce new autologous heart muscle cells which behave identically to those lost in infarction without carrying the risk of rejection." Simply put, C-Cure uses stem cells from bone marrow to create new heart muscle cells to replace those lost during a heart attack. The image below from Celyad's website shows an overview of the whole process from harvesting the stem cells from the patient's bone marrow to some proprietary science and finally where the cells are injected into the heart where the dead heart muscle cells are. Image from Celyad website product overview Why The Market Has Not Come around To Celyad? Many Investors Have Never Heard Of Celyad Celyad currently has a market cap of $450 million, which lowers the potential recognition because of its size. This is shown by data from Seeking Alpha, which shows only 249 have CYAD in their portfolio. When comparing CYAD to a well-known biotech like Gilead (NASDAQ:GILD), which is in over 41,000 portfolios, it is easy to see how Celyad can get lost in the biotech mix. In addition, the company has not received any exposure from fellow Seeking Alpha authors, which is shown by the fact that Celyad has zero focus articles wrote about it. The last reason why many investors do not know Celyad is that many institutions do not own the stock. According to Fidelity, Celyad only has 4% institutional ownership, which limits its exposure. CYAD Has No Revenue-Producing Products The second reason why Celyad has not been found by many investors is because the company currently does not generate any revenues. For many growth investors, they like significant revenue growth, and when looking at Celyad, there are no revenues, therefore, the company is overlooked. In general, biotech companies that do not have any revenues need to have a strong cash position to be able to fund operations and not incur large amounts of debt, or dilute shareholders. In a recent press release by Celyad, it stated: "The Company ended the quarter with €114.6 million in cash. Management confirms its expectation that the treasury as of end of September 2015 is sufficient to finance the operations of the group until end of 2017." Even with the cash position it has and even though there is the potential for revenue in the future, Celyad currently does not have any revenues, therefore, it is more difficult to attract investors. Catalysts That Will Shine A Light On Celyad In 2016
deel 2 Catalysts That Will Shine A Light On Celyad In 2016 Phase III C-Cure Results In Europe The Phase III results that Celyad will report in mid-2016 will be the most important catalyst of the year. With C-Cure being the lead product, CYAD has staked its near-term future on the approval of C-Cure in Europe, and with the final European Phase III trial being conducted, and thus, the last hurdle before filing for marketing approval, Celyad is on the cusp of generating revenues. In a third-quarter business update, the Celyad CEO stated: "The Company therefore confirms its previous projections on CHART-1 read-out for mid-2016." With data being presented in mid-2016 and applying for marketing approval shortly thereafter, pending good data from the trial Celyad will likely see a large boost in its share price. Phase 1/IIa Results On Immuno-Oncology Therapy NKG2D Celyad acquired its immuno-oncology product candidates from OnCyte. The oncology candidates focus on CAR T-cell therapies based on Natural Killer Cell's receptors to target several solid cancers. Celyad initiated a Phase I/IIa trial to assess the safety and feasibility of the treatment with the secondary goal being clinical results. From a press release on December 1st, Celyad noted that: "Data readouts from the first 12 patients treated in the Phase I portion are expected in mid-2016." The reason why a Phase I/IIa trial data readout would have an impact on the stock price is if the results show anything near the results in animal models. On the oncology overview section for Celyad, the following image shows the potential for the treatment and why positive results could have a positive impact on the stock. Celyad Oncology Overview J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference Celyad announced that it would be attending the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, which is held from January 11th through the 15th. This conference is important for the company to gain exposure to analysts and institutional investors, because, currently, according to Fidelity, CYAD only has 4% institutional ownership. The second item, which is important to Celyad to potentially find a partner for its trials in the United States. In the press release, it stated: "Celyad will meet with US investors, potential partners, share with them its on-going development programs, and strategic vision for the future." Being able to find a partner for the U.S trials would be a big step in the future growth of C-Cure, which just this week received approval to start a Phase III trial in the United States. Upside Potential To estimate the upside potential for Celyad, I first had to estimate the potential sales of its C-Cure product in Europe. The four variables to project potential sales are: Sales starting period, potential patient population, price of treatment, and other considerations. Sales Starting Period In a November press release, Celyad noted it had started the "initiation of the certification procedure by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) of the non-clinical data of its lead product, C-Cure." What this means for CYAD is that it will be able to file marketing authorization shortly after trial results are presented mid-year, which will be needed for a 2017 launch of C-Cure in Europe. For my sales projection model, I will be using 2017 as the starting year for sales. Patient Population Since Celyad just got approved to start its Phase III trial in the United States, and with data not expected to be released to 2018 and approval in the year following, I will only be focusing on the potential patient population in Europe, which will most likely start having sales in early 2017. On the Celyad's website, it notes, "in Europe alone, 3.6 million people are diagnosed annually." For my sales projection model, I will be using an annual patient population of 3.6 million. Sales Price The potential sales price was the most difficult item to find. I searched and searched, and the only clue on potential pricing I found was in a report by Edison Investment Research, which estimated a potential treatment price of $55,000 in Europe. Therefore, I used the $55,000 estimate in my sales projection model. Other Considerations One additional item I added to my sales projection was the fact that the Mayo Clinic will receive $1 million/year for four years if C-Cure is brought to market and will receive a 2% royalty on all sales.
Deel 3 Sales Projection Putting all of the above information together, I projected sales for five years with sales starting in 2017. I then took the NPV of those projected sales to determine a current fair value for Celyad if it traded at 1x the present value of projected future sales. To calculate the discount rate, I used the following calculator, in which I used the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (NASDAQ:IBB) for my benchmark rate. Discount rate calculator The table below shows the NPV of projected sales to be just over $780 million, and Celyad currently has a market cap of about $450 million, which means that it has a potential upside of nearly 74%. Europe Patient Population 3,600,000 Treatment Price $55,000 Proj. Sales Less $1M PMT + 2% Mayo Clinic Royalty Year Year Patients Treated % of Patient Pop. Using Treatment 1 2016 0 0.0% $0 2 2017 1,800 0.05% $96,020,000 3 2018 3,600 0.10% $193,040,000 4 2019 5,400 0.15% $290,060,000 5 2020 7,200 0.20% $387,080,000 6 2021 9,000 0.25% $485,100,000 Total Patients Treated 27,000 Discount Rate 14.48% NPV $783,167,879.55 % of Pat. Pop. Treated 0.75% Current market Cap 451,090,000 Upside 73.62% Current Price $49.40 Price Target $85.77 Downside Risk There are two potential downside drivers: weak C-Cure trial data presented in mid-2016, and the second risk is, if C-Cure is approved, will the cost of the treatment be lower than projected. Weak Data Because C-Cure is the lead product for Celyad and the closest to launching, any data presented that is perceived as weak or will lessen the possibility of market approval will most likely be met with a significant decline in the stock. For example, recently, Clovis Oncology (NASDAQ:CLVS) fell significantly (70%) when its trial data showed "the response rate in its ongoing clinical studies of Breakthrough Therapy-tagged rociletinib in EGFR T790M+ lung cancer is lower than expected and the FDA has requested additional efficacy data on both the 500 mg and 625 mg dosage groups." Simply put, the trial data was weak and the FDA wanted additional data. This shows the impact that weak data on its lead product and doubts about approval can have on a company that has no revenues. Lower Treatment Price If the treatment price for C-Cure is lower than expected, this will also have an impact on the current value of the stock. In the table below, I used the same model I used above to project future sales, except in this case I modeled for a treatment price that was 50% less than the estimated $55,000. Looking at the end result, you can see that if the sales price is 50% lower, the potential downside to the current price is just over 13%. This will be a potential risk for investors to watch for throughout 2016, as more information on pricing will be released as the potential 2017 launch approaches. Europe Patient Population 3,600,000 Treatment Price $27,500 Proj. Sales Less $1M PMT + 2% Mayo Clinic Royalty Year Year Patients Treated % of Pop. Using Treatment 1 2016 0 0.0% $0 2 2017 1,800 0.05% $47,510,000 3 2018 3,600 0.10% $96,020,000 4 2019 5,400 0.15% $144,530,000 5 2020 7,200 0.20% $193,040,000 6 2021 9,000 0.25% $242,550,000 Total Patients Treated 27,000 Discount Rate 14.48% NPV $390,323,775.18 % of Pat. Pop. Treated 0.75% Current market Cap 451,090,000 Upside -13.47% Current Price $49.40 Price Target $42.75 Closing Thoughts In closing, I believe Celyad is a quality speculative play in the biotechnology sector because it will be presenting data on its lead product C-Cure and its immuno-oncology treatment in mid-2016. In addition, in January, CYAD is attending the J.P. Morgan Healthcare conference and it has the potential to find a partner for the Phase III FDA trial for C-Cure. The conference will also give Celyad exposure to institutional investors and analysts, which should be a positive for the stock going forward into 2016. Based on my sales projection for C-Cure in Europe and the other potential positive catalysts I discussed, I see Celyad with the potential for 73.62% upside. For the downside risks that are quantifiable, I see a potential downside of 13.47%. This means that based on my projections of upside and downside risk, the company has just over a 5/1 reward/risk ratio. Since Celyad is a small-cap biotech company with no current revenues and trades at low volumes, it is wise to use proper position sizing and limit orders when considering CYAD or any small-cap biotech stock in general. In addition, it is possible that shares could significantly decline if the company presents weak data or the treatment price comes in lower than expected. Disclaimer: See here. Additional disclosure: I plan on purchasing Celyad in the near future.
Heel veel dank Zo gaat dat. Ben benieuwd of de auteur is ingestapt. Het Tij zat in ieder geval mee...
@Zo gaat dat , bedankt voor dit mooie artikel. in January, CYAD is attending the J.P. Morgan Healthcare conference and it has the potential to find a partner for the Phase III FDA trial for C-Cure. The conference will also give Celyad exposure to institutional investors and analysts, which should be a positive for the stock going forward into 2016. Vind het wel raar dat er ondertussen nog niks is gebeurd met de koers, nochtans is deze conferentie al enkele dagen afgelopen.Je zou toch veronderstellen dat een mooie presentatie kopers aan trekt ( wij kregen er alleen een shorter bij )Of zie ik dit verkeerd??
We kunnen beter de auteur bedanken voor zijn heldere verwoording. ;-)
Zo gaat dat schreef op 27 januari 2016 08:56 :
We kunnen beter de auteur bedanken voor zijn heldere verwoording. ;-)
Ja natuurlijk, ik wou jou of de auteur met bovenstaande opmerking zeker niet beledigen hoor, dat was zeker niet mijn bedoeling. Ik vind het zelfs een reuze artikel en er moet werk aan geweest zijn om dit te maken. Ik ben door mijn negatieve ervaring toch misschien een beetje te sceptisch geworden. Mocht mijn opmerking als beledigend zijn over gekomen bied ik graag mijn verontschuldigingen aan.
Goedemorgen, mooi artikel en bedankt voor het plaatsen, en een AB van mij , Sky kop op.
En hier een grote verkoper. Wie zou dit pakketje hebben gekocht. Ik verdenk Tonneke :-) Nee het was Mr. Wang van ADODENHAAG LOL 26-01-2016 Meldplichtige Wong Danny F. Aard van de aangever Persoon gelieerd aan een lid van een vennootschapsorgaan Emittent Celyad Aard van de effecten Aandeel Aantal effecten 70000 Aard van de transactie Verkoop Plaats van de transactie Buiten Beurs Datum 20-01-2015 Munt EUR Totale bedrag 2135000
Natte krant schreef op 27 januari 2016 09:32 :
En hier een grote verkoper. Wie zou dit pakketje hebben gekocht.
Ik verdenk Tonneke :-)
Nee het was Mr. Wang van ADODENHAAG LOL
26-01-2016
Meldplichtige
Wong Danny F.
Aard van de aangever
Persoon gelieerd aan een lid van een vennootschapsorgaan
Emittent
Celyad
Aard van de effecten
Aandeel
Aantal effecten
70000
Aard van de transactie
Verkoop
Plaats van de transactie
Buiten Beurs
Datum
20-01-2015
Munt
EUR
Totale bedrag
2135000
ha ha natte krant, als ik dit op mijn rekening bijgeschreven kreeg dan nam ik jullie allemaal mee voor een leuk weekend, en jullie mochten bepalen waar naar toe ;-)))
Sky-jumper schreef op 27 januari 2016 09:07 :
[...]
Mocht mijn opmerking als beledigend zijn over gekomen bied ik graag mijn verontschuldigingen aan.
Nee hoor, zo was het totaal niet op mij overgekomen. Dus no worries.. ;-)
@natte krant : werden dus verkocht aan 30, 5 euro, wie doet veel belovende aandelen dan zomaar weg ? Dat betekent ook dat de koper , als hij zijn tijd afwacht nu 4 euro meer kan krijgen op de beurs als hij ze nu en dan verkoopt.
Zo gaat dat schreef op 27 januari 2016 09:46 :
[...]
Nee hoor, zo was het totaal niet op mij overgekomen. Dus no worries.. ;-)
Ok fijn, een goede verstandhouding hier is formidabel.
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Sucraf A en B
Sunrun
Super de Boer
SVK (Scheerders van Kerchove)
Syensqo
Systeem Trading
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC)
Technicolor
Tele Atlas
Telegraaf Media
Telenet Groep Holding
Tencent Holdings Ltd
Tesla Motors Inc.
Tessenderlo Group
Tetragon Financial Group
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries
Texaf
Theon International
TherapeuticsMD
Thunderbird Resorts
TIE
Tigenix
Tikkurila
TINC
TITAN CEMENT INTERNATIONAL
TKH Group
TMC
TNT Express
TomTom
Transocean
Trigano
Tubize
Turbo's
Twilio
UCB
Umicore
Unibail-Rodamco
Unifiedpost
Unilever
Unilever
uniQure
Unit 4 Agresso
Univar
Universal Music Group
USG People
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Value8 Cum Pref
Van de Velde
Van Lanschot
Vastned
Vastned Retail Belgium
Vedior
VendexKBB
VEON
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Versatel
VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
VGP
Via Net.Works
Viohalco
Vivendi
Vivoryon Therapeutics
VNU
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Volkswagen
Volta Finance
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Vopak
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Wave Life Sciences Ltd
Wavin
WDP
Wegener
Weibo Corp
Wereldhave
Wereldhave Belgium
Wessanen
What's Cooking
Wolters Kluwer
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Xebec
Xeikon
Xior
Yatra Capital Limited
Zalando
Zenitel
Zénobe Gramme
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